Crypto
2 posts · all posts
November 2026
How accurate is Polymarket? Calibration, longshot bias and a volume trap
Polymarket's prices checked against what happened across almost three million resolved markets: how well calibrated they are, what accuracy figures hide, where longshots and favourites are mispriced, insiders, oracles and the cost of trading
AI crypto trading bots: what machine learning and LLMs can and can't do
AI trading bots and LLM agents tested on six years of Binance data: what machine learning predicts, what trading fees eat, and why LLM backtests lie